(Zurich, 6 March 2017) Leading think tank of the international insurance industry, The Geneva Association, welcomes top international experts to discuss and explore the issue – “How Will Risk Modelling Shape the Future of Risk Transfer?” This scientific seminar is co-organised with the SCOR Foundation and hosted at the SCOR Paris headquarters on 9th March 2017. It will inform a ground-breaking research report by The Geneva Association’s Extreme Events and Climate Risk Research Programme, publishing in June 2017.
The last three and a half decades have witnessed a general trend of rising economic losses associated with extreme events. This is due to multiple factors, including increased concentration of people and assets in exposed areas such as coastal regions, poor development planning and related practices, highly sophisticated but vulnerable global production processes and the increasing severity and frequency of extreme weather-related events linked to a changing climate.
Risk analysis is the foundation for informed decision-making, increasing the understanding of the characteristics of risk, supporting risk pricing, and evaluating cost–benefits of various risk management strategies. In the mid-1980s and early 1990s, a number of major catastrophes in North America and Europe led to unprecedented high losses, resulting in insolvencies and/or bankruptcies in the insurance sector, and pointing to the need for a more rigorous and quantifiable approach to assessing and underwriting risks.
The development and utilization of catastrophe risk models (cat models) over the last 25 years has revolutionized the (re)insurance industry’s approach to pricing, underwriting and managing their complex risk portfolios. Beyond the insurance sector, the international development community has also adopted these models to help governments better understand risk and make risk-based decisions, helping improve disaster and climate risk management decisions.
The seminar brings together leading international experts from the (re)insurance industry, risk modelling community, international organizations, international donors, governments and the scientific community to share experiences and explore opportunities for strengthened cooperation and partnerships. The programme will examine the following critical issues:
(i) Enhancing current cat models – building on lessons learned from their development and utilization over the last 25 years;
(ii) Finding effective pathways to expand risk information and cat risk modelling tools to support public-sector decisions; and,
(iii) Harnessing the latest scientific and technological developments for a new generation of forward-looking risk models.
Dr. Maryam Golnaraghi, Director of the Extreme Events and Climate Risks Research Programme at The Geneva Association, said: “As one of its top priorities, The Geneva Association is convening a diverse group of leading experts in the industry, cat modelling, and various areas of science and technology to explore how risk modelling can shape the future of risk transfer around the world. Specifically, we are not only exploring opportunities to enhance current cat modelling approaches, but also opportunities for harnessing scientific and technological advancements in areas such as environmental surveillance, climate monitoring and forecasting, engineering, big data, and artificial intelligence for development of the new generation of systems-based risk models that can innovate risk transfer.”
Anna Maria D’Hulster, Secretary General of the Geneva Association said, “The insurance industry has deep risk knowledge and is working at the forefront of risk assessment, risk pricing and risk transfer. Public-private partnerships could be instrumental in helping the public sector in developing risk-informed preventive measures and risk transfer programmes that help government, businesses and individuals with managing their risks.”
